The travel industry is facing an uncertain summer as early-season holiday bookings are hit by conflict in the Middle East and rising living costs, the UK travel association Abta has warned.
Abta chief executive warns of 'apprehension'
Mark Tanzer, chief executive of Abta, said that while people still want to travel, the industry is bracing for a difficult summer. "There is evidence from our research that apprehension generally, and the rising cost of living here, are dampening early-season booking levels," he told the Travel Matters conference in London.
Nervous consumers are increasingly booking their holidays later in the year, amid fears over the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on travel. The war has triggered a spike in global oil prices, with jet fuel costs rising even more sharply, bringing the prospect of higher air fares. However, large numbers of flights have not been cancelled during the lucrative summer holiday season, as some had feared.
EU entry/exit system adds to uncertainty
Tanzer also highlighted the new EU entry/exit system (EES), which has caused long delays at some major airports on the continent. The rules require passengers from non-EU countries to register personal information and biometrics at the border. "The rollout of the EU entry/exit system is creating an unhelpful, and potentially damaging, backdrop for summer travel to EU destinations," he said. "There clearly are some hotspots, and we urge destinations to use the contingency flexibility allowed under the regulation to suspend the biometric registration where queues are unacceptably long."
In May, French police temporarily suspended the extra checks at the port of Dover. The Greek tourism minister, Olga Kefalogianni, told the BBC that Greece would suspend biometric checks for British travellers until September to prevent summer disruption. Uku Särekanno, a director at Frontex, the European border and coastguard agency, said it could take "one or two years" for the EES to stabilise as people go through the system for the first time, after which they can use a fast-track check.
Holiday operators face planning difficulties
The warning from Abta comes as airlines and holiday operators face an uncertain summer, the most important season for profits in the industry. Shaun Morton, chief executive of the holiday operator On the Beach, also speaking at the Abta conference, said while bookings have been coming in, shorter lead times "creates uncertainty and makes planning difficult."
"We have a price-sensitive and uncertain consumer who was already booking on a later booking curve, who is now also concerned about coming out of this war – more inflation, fuel shortages and fuel surcharges," he said. However, he still expected the summer travel market to grow overall this year. "This late loop will eventually reverse when the conditions allow it to," Morton said. "This is cyclical … where people do miss out on their holiday this year, I'm sure they will make sure they don't miss out on it next year."
Shares in On the Beach have fallen 30% this year, including a sharp fall last month, when the group warned holidaymakers were booking later this year.
