A new study examining school attendance trends in New South Wales has found a significant shift towards private schooling, with the proportion of students attending independent schools rising from 15% in 2008 to 20% in 2025. Over the same period, government school attendance fell from 66% to 62%, while Catholic school enrolments remained stable at around 20%.
National Context and Local Differences
Nationally, 17% of Australian students attended independent schools in 2025, up from 13% in 2006, while public school enrolment dropped from 67% to 63%. The study, which focused on NSW—home to about 30% of the national school population—used publicly available data to analyse trends by location and socioeconomic background.
Researchers split NSW into four geographic categories: major cities, inner regional areas, outer regional areas, and remote or very remote areas. They also examined the socioeconomic composition of schools using the Index of Community Socio-educational Advantage (ICSEA), which factors in parents' education, occupation, income and location.
Inner Regional Areas See Biggest Growth in Private Schooling
The greatest growth in independent school attendance occurred in inner regional areas such as Camden, Wagga Wagga and Lismore. In these locations, independent school attendance increased by 7 percentage points since 2008, while government school attendance dropped by 9 percentage points. Although major cities still have the highest proportion of independent school students, inner regional areas are rapidly catching up.
In remote and very remote locations, independent schools are scarce. Around 80% of students attend government schools, with the remainder in Catholic schools.
Socioeconomic Shifts Across Sectors
On average, more advantaged students attend schools in major cities regardless of sector. Within each location, government schools had the lowest average socioeconomic rating, followed by Catholic schools, while independent schools educated the most advantaged students.
However, the socioeconomic composition of independent schools in major cities, inner regional and outer regional areas declined between 2012 and 2025, with larger declines outside cities. This suggests independent schools are now enrolling students from more similar backgrounds to those in Catholic schools. Researchers believe this reflects middle-income families leaving government schools for lower-fee private schools.
“These results make sense if the students leaving government schools for independent schools are largely from middle-income families, attending private schools with lower fees,” the study notes.
Government Schools Outside Cities Face Growing Disadvantage
The analysis showed declines in the socioeconomic advantage of students attending government schools in all locations except major cities. Metropolitan government schools saw little change over 18 years. Catholic schools remained relatively stable overall, though their socioeconomic composition increased in remote locations.
These findings align with other Australian research showing that most government schools outside cities educate the most disadvantaged students. Schools within the same sector are not comparable across locations—for example, government schools in inner Sydney serve vastly different socioeconomic communities than those in Dubbo, Forbes or Moree.
Limitations and Implications
The study was limited by the type of data published by the national education reporting authority. Researchers could not split data into primary and high schools, which may reveal different trends since students are more likely to attend private school for high school. Additionally, rural and regional towns often differ greatly but are grouped under the same label in Bureau of Statistics data.
Previous research has shown that students who leave government schools tend to be from more socioeconomically advantaged families. In extreme cases, this can lead to a system where advantaged and disadvantaged students are concentrated in entirely different schools. While families have the right to choose what is best for their child, the broader impact on school systems warrants attention.
“Understanding why we are seeing an increasing drift of students out of government schools and into private schools is an important next step,” the researchers conclude.
