Migration Decline and Rising Concern
Net overseas migration in Australia is declining sharply, having peaked in 2023 and dropped by 45% as of mid-2026. Yet public concern has moved in the opposite direction. The Lowy Institute’s 2026 poll, released last week, found 55% of Australians believe the number of migrants coming each year is too high—a record for the poll, up two points from last year and seven points from 2024. This divergence between falling numbers and rising concern exposes the ineffectiveness of focusing solely on numbers in migration debates. No matter how low the figures get, parties that campaign on the topic can always shift the goalposts.
Politicisation of Immigration
Migration is the most debated public policy issue in Australia and overseas. This five-part series unpacks how Australia’s migration system works practically and politically, and what its future might look like. The politicisation of immigration in Australia is neither surprising nor new. In the early 2010s, refugees, asylum seekers and “boat arrivals” dominated media narratives despite making only a modest percentage of the overall permanent migration intake annually.
Migration has long been framed as a simple binary: good or bad for the economy, good or bad for society. But this framing, largely influenced by elites, rarely yields meaningful contributions to good policy-making. Immigration policy is extremely complex, and Australia’s program is no exception. Governments face serious questions about what kind of program to run—what balance between permanent and temporary migration is sustainable, and whether temporary intakes should be tied to capacity to convert workers into permanent residents rather than left to drift.
Framing Migration as a Crisis
As migration expert Alan Gamlen argues, the central challenge for governments is managing an immigration program that promotes “prosperity, protects human dignity and sustains social cohesion.” Yet the Australian debate rages almost entirely over whether immigration is too high or too low. The current political discourse has reached a point where detail barely registers. What matters is framing, and parties such as One Nation and the Coalition have successfully framed migration as a crisis. Such framing oversimplifies a complex system, fuels misinformation, and increases polarisation. It positions migrants as threats to the economic and societal wellbeing of domestic citizens.
The dangers of this debate obscure not only how much Australia relies on migration, but also the cost of a system that produces a second class of workers who are systematically underpaid, disempowered, and exploited.
Labor’s Political Dilemma
For Labor, debates on migration are politically poisoned ground. This helps explain One Nation’s success in driving negative sentiments. According to “issue-ownership theory,” voters tend to trust centre-right parties on borders and immigration, while the centre-left “owns” health, education, and industrial relations. When migration becomes salient, Labor’s instinct is often to neutralise it. Before the re-emergence of politicisation midway through the Albanese government’s first term, Labor was beginning to reckon with a migration system it described as “broken.” It made early progress on reform, including a world-leading visa to protect migrant workers who report exploitation.
But once migration became politicised again in mid-2023, the appointment of political fixer Tony Burke as both minister for home affairs and minister for immigration and citizenship signalled a shift in approach. The focus moved towards the politics of migration rather than substantive policy debates. Labor’s framing consistently sought to reassure voters that migration is in decline and that Labor can be trusted to maintain a “sensible” program. However, since 2023, polling and electoral success for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation have surged, along with swelling debates and protests from anti-immigration activists. One Nation is now polling as the party best suited to handle immigration issues.
Will Political Temperature Cool?
Will falling migration numbers eventually cool the politics? The United Kingdom suggests not. UK net migration has fallen, yet only 16% of the UK public believe it has fallen; half think it has risen. As long as the debate stays politicised and the rhetoric of an immigration “crisis” frames migrants as outsiders and threats, anti-immigration sentiment will persist, along with support for parties that trade on it. Economist Jonathan Portes argues that chasing a net migration target does not defuse politicisation; it can legitimise it, turning every figure into a test the government is seen as passing or failing. Simply repeating that net overseas migration is falling will not lower the temperature. Without a clear migration plan that politicians are willing to explain and defend to the public, good governance of the program will remain out of reach.
