One Nation’s historic victory in the federal seat of Farrer has ignited fresh political tensions, with Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek branding the result “a disaster for the Coalition”. The comments come as One Nation confirms it is preparing to target Labor-held western Sydney seats, including Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s electorate, following the shock result.
The by-election, triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, saw One Nation secure its first-ever House of Representatives seat and end the Coalition’s decades-long hold on the rural New South Wales electorate. In a heated clash on Sunrise on Monday, Plibersek said the result was “a very strong repudiation of the Liberal and National parties”.
She argued the government needs to “listen to what people are saying”, pointing to upcoming tax cuts and measures on wages, childcare costs, and energy bill relief. She also challenged voters to examine One Nation’s actions versus its rhetoric. “They’re pretty good at having a whinge and identifying problems, they’re not so great at finding solutions,” she said. “This is the One Nation that voted against higher wages and better conditions for working Australians. They say that they’re for the ordinary person, but they vote against higher wages and better conditions, they vote against cheaper child-care, they vote against fee-free TAFE, they vote against energy bill relief, they vote against all the things that make life easier.”
Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras has warned One Nation is “poised to clean up everything in regional New South Wales” at the next federal election, with the Farrer result reinforcing trends emerging across NSW and South Australia. One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce defended the party’s momentum, arguing voters are frustrated by cost-of-living pressures, power bills, and climate policies. “People are very enthusiastic, they get the idea that when you have record insolvencies in small business, when you have a government that is just incapable of understanding that people are over climate change policy, they’re over their power bills, they’re over Australia having so much potential but seem to lack putting it on the paddock, they’re over being dominated by teal views and progressive left views, they know we have a huge potential as a nation and they want to be part of that potential not part of this butterfly chasing exercise,” he said.
Joyce said the party is looking at first and second generation Australians as potential candidates, tapping into growing frustration over cost-of-living pressures and immigration levels — but refused to name names. “The polling is not an aberration; it’s been validated by both South Australia and Farrer,” Joyce said. “We are very much in the mind for western suburbs of Sydney. I was talking to people from the western suburbs of Sydney last night, both on the ground. To be quite frank, I was even talking to potential candidates.”
The pair then erupted in a fiery debate over immigration. Plibersek said the government had “halved immigration” since taking office and was addressing housing affordability “after 10 years of inaction from the coalition government.” Joyce countered that Labor had overseen “massive immigration, over 400,000 people a year”, creating pressure on housing, schools, and hospitals. He advocated for net immigration of 130,000, saying the focus needed to be on whether the country could absorb the numbers. “If you can’t absorb these people, if you don’t have the houses for them, if you don’t have the dams for them, if you don’t have the schools for them, and you’re going to put them in the western suburbs of Sydney, then get ready to just be parked on your road,” Joyce said.
At one point, Joyce cut Plibersek off, saying “thanks for the talking points”, prompting a sharp response from the minister. “I listened to you, Barnaby,” Plibersek replied. As the pair talked over one another during the fiery exchange, Joyce took one final swipe at the minister. “You seem very worried, Tanya,” he chimed in.
