South Australia's Election Jitters as One Nation Emerges as Key Player
The waiting is almost over in South Australia, with both major parties displaying signs of last-minute jitters that are unique to this state election. The arrival of One Nation as a legitimate political force is sending shudders through both the Labor and Liberal camps as the countdown continues to Saturday’s vote. If current opinion polling holds up, Pauline Hanson’s party is projected to outpoll the beleaguered Liberals in primary votes, which technically could elevate One Nation to become South Australia’s official opposition.
Polling and Preference Dynamics
However, that polling does not necessarily flow through to the final result, as preferences will play a crucial factor in determining who forms government and opposition. Both major parties are acutely aware that all the pre-election hype does not always translate to votes on the day or during the pre-poll process. In essence, Labor is destined for a record landslide victory, while the Liberals are due for a drubbing that could reshape the party’s future. Neither party wants One Nation to be a defining factor in this election, but that outcome now seems a foregone conclusion in some form.
From covering the past 11 elections in South Australia, I have formed the same view as many political pundits, including former Liberal prime minister John Howard, who famously said, “Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems.” If that holds true, the Liberals may escape with some dignity, and Labor might also face disappointment, albeit with a thumping victory.
Current Seat Distribution and Projections
Labor currently holds 29 of the 47 lower house seats, while the Liberals are languishing on 13, with four independents and one seat vacant due to the imprisonment of former Mount Gambier Liberal-turned-independent Troy Bell. I project that Labor will increase its hold to 32 seats and the Liberals will drop to 11 after all votes are counted. Independents would still hold four seats, by my calculations.
That might be fine in theory but way off the mark in practice. Not only has One Nation thrown a potential spanner in the works, but a record number of independent candidates has further muddied the waters. Pauline Hanson is on a flying visit to South Australia and, in an apparent set-up, was able to give Premier Peter Malinauskas a piece of her mind over his “bum wiping” comments regarding immigration just before he appeared in a televised debate.
One Nation's Role and Impact
But almost in the same breath, Hanson says she is unable to answer specific questions about One Nation policy in South Australia because she is from Queensland. I still do not believe there is enough critical voting mass to give One Nation a seat in the lower house. And, even if they secure a place or two, what does it really achieve with all their candidates being so unknown and politically inexperienced?
The premier took time out during the week to personally explain “at some length” the policies of One Nation. He then stood silently for the next 15 seconds for the dramatic effect of showing he thought they had nothing to offer. Liberal leader Ashton Hurn has been less blatant but is also hoping One Nation does not fiercely tilt the scales against her party.
Election Night Coverage and Results
The results, especially in the Upper House, may not be known for weeks after painstaking preference counting. But Labor should know if it will reach its necessary 24 seats in the Lower House for an absolute majority within the first 90 minutes. Neither leader will delay their concession or victory speeches any longer than they need to after such a brutal campaign.
Most observers will remain focused on the extent of the Liberal loss and what it means for Hurn, and any others left standing after Saturday night. Seven News has special coverage before and after the polls close. Rosanna Mangiarelli and I will host a one-hour preview show at 5pm, with the Advertiser’s Andrew Hough and FIVEaa’s Stacey Lee.
We will return at 6:30pm with a special panel including Labor Senator Don Farrell, former Liberal “fixer” Christopher Pyne, firebrand Liberal Senator Alex Antic, Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young, Liberal SA president Senator Leah Blyth, and Labor MP for Badcoe Jayne Stinson. It is the most experienced team of experts ever assembled in South Australia for an election night coverage, and it is also live on 7Plus.
Mike Smithson is weekend presenter and political analyst for 7NEWS Adelaide.
