Male Voter Support Spikes for Coalition Following Ousting of Female Leader
Male voter support for the Liberal-National Coalition has surged dramatically since the party replaced its first female leader, according to a gender analysis of the latest Roy Morgan polling data. The shift occurred after Angus Taylor took over from Sussan Ley last Friday, triggering significant changes in voter allegiances.
Polling Data Reveals Sharp Gender Divide
The data, based on a representative cross-section of 526 Australian voters surveyed between February 13 and February 16, shows that male support for the Coalition increased by 8.5 percentage points on a two-party preferred basis. Overall, the Labor Party lost 3.5 percentage points of voter support, which the Coalition gained, though Labor still holds 55 per cent of national voter support on a two-party preferred basis. A report accompanying the data stated, "If a federal election were held now, the ALP would be returned to government with a similar majority."
In primary support terms, the Coalition saw a 3.5 point rise to 23.5 per cent, while One Nation dropped 3.5 points to 21.5 per cent. The Labor Party experienced a 1.5 point decline to 32 per cent, the Greens lost 0.5 points to 12.5 per cent, and support for independents and other parties fell 1 point to 10.5 per cent.
Female Voters Shift Support to Labor
As male support moved to the now male-led Coalition, female voters rescinded their backing. The Labor government gained 1 percentage point of female voter support, which the Coalition lost. Currently, the Coalition holds 38 per cent of the female vote and 52.5 per cent of the male vote, while Labor has 62 per cent of the female vote and 47.5 per cent of the male vote.
The Liberal Party's decision to replace Ley has sparked a crisis over women's representation, with key advocate Charlotte Mortlock resigning from both Hilma's Network and the Liberal Party in protest. Mortlock, who founded the network to address low female representation, previously highlighted the gap, stating, "The average Australian is a 37-year-old female. The average Liberal Party member is a male in his 70s." Some Liberal MPs believe Ley was never given a fair chance by a conservative faction that opposed her rule and policies.
Public Sentiment and Policy Shifts
Despite Labor's majority support, 55 per cent of Australians believe the country is "going in the wrong direction," according to the Roy Morgan government confidence rating, though this figure dropped 2 percentage points after the leadership change. Conversely, those who think Australia is "going in the right direction" increased by 4.5 points to 33 per cent.
The polling shifts follow weeks of Coalition in-fighting, ending with Taylor outlining a "fresh direction" and citing challenges to government housing and immigration policy. The split between the Liberal and National parties, largely prompted by Ley's net-zero stance, led to her ousting. Taylor promptly rejected Labor's "net zero ideology" after his appointment.
However, a recent Redbridge Group survey of 3000 adults suggested a polluter tax may no longer be electoral kryptonite, with 79 per cent of Labor supporters and 33 per cent of Coalition supporters nationwide backing a pollution levy on the top 100 polluting companies. Redbridge director Kos Samaras noted such a levy could be vulnerable to scare campaigns on rising power bills but urged the Albanese government to "capitalise" on this emerging constituency with tax reform.
