Every World Cup needs a dark horse: the team no one quite planned for that disrupts the natural order and is remembered more vividly than the finalists. Morocco did it in 2022, beating Spain and Portugal on their way to becoming the first African side to reach the semi-finals. Croatia produced a fairytale run to the final in 2018. Costa Rica topped a group that featured three former champions – England, Italy and Uruguay – in 2014 before eventually losing to the Netherlands on penalties in the quarter-finals. And South Korea, who had never won a match at a World Cup, went all the way to the semi-finals in 2002. With 48 teams at this year’s tournament, there are a few candidates to make an unexpected run to the latter stages.
Ecuador
A defence featuring two Champions League finalists, a 15-game unbeaten streak, and second place in South American qualifying. You would think we are talking about one of the favourites. Instead, we are talking about Ecuador, who have a great chance to go further than ever before at the World Cup – their last-16 exit at the 2006 tournament in Germany.
Ecuador did not play in the World Cup until 2002 but they have only missed two tournaments since then: in 2010 and 2018. While participation has long been their goal, there is a growing sense that something greater is finally within reach.
A new generation of players – led by Moisés Caicedo, Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho, under the guidance of manager Sebastián Beccacece – have turned Ecuador into one of the hardest teams to break down in world football. If you are expecting the flair and risk-taking sometimes associated with South American football, this is not it. Beccacece has drilled a side built on structure and control, with Ecuador conceding just five goals in 18 qualifying matches and keeping 13 clean sheets. They were behind for just 97 minutes across the entire campaign.
They rarely allow opponents to dictate terms, but the question is whether they can score enough goals to turn draws into wins. No side that qualified from South America scored fewer than Ecuador’s 14 goals, with the burden falling heavily on the shoulders of 34-year-old veteran Enner Valencia, who contributed six of them during qualifying. Nevertheless, as Beccacece himself has argued: “All you have to do is score one more than the opposition.” In knockout football, where margins are often fine, Ecuador’s defensive solidity means they do not necessarily need to score goals in the masses.
Japan
The round of 16 has haunted Japan at World Cups. Four times they have reached the knockout stages and four times their journey has ended there. Japan hold the record for most World Cup matches played without ever reaching the quarter-finals (25).
They are getting closer, though, only missing out in 2018 after a late collapse against Belgium and missing out in 2022 after a penalty shootout defeat to Croatia. This is Japan’s eighth consecutive World Cup appearance and there is a growing sense that they will make a breakthrough.
Perhaps the biggest difference this time is the genuine belief in the camp they can do something special. “We aim to win the World Cup, so the national team is ready to play every match like it’s their last,” said manager Hajime Moriyasu in a recent interview. And his optimism isn’t unfounded; Japan beat Germany and Spain in the last World Cup, and they have beaten England and Brazil in the last 12 months. They were the first country to qualify after a near flawless campaign.
This team has been refined over years. Thirteen players from the squad that topped a group featuring Spain, Germany and Costa Rica in 2022 are back, bringing experience and a shared understanding of what it takes to compete on the big stage. While injuries to Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino are significant setbacks, Moriyasu – who has been in charge since 2018 – can still call upon Takefusa Kubo, Daichi Kamada, Daizen Maeda and Ayase Ueda, who won the Golden Boot in the Eredivisie this season.
Japan are in a tough group alongside the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia but their high tempo, relentless pressing and togetherness could take them far.
Norway
When Norway last played at a World Cup, in 1998, only nine of the 26 players in this squad had been born. The current generation have ended the country’s long wait and they are not just making up the numbers.
Headlined by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, Norway arrive in North America with wind in their sails. Ståle Solbakken’s side stormed through qualifying, becoming one of only two European teams – alongside England – to win every match. They scored 37 goals and conceded just five in their eight matches, with their massive 11-1 win over Moldova standing out.
Norway’s attack should be one of the most feared in the tournament. Solbakken has built a team that can hurt opponents in multiple ways, whether through patient buildup, quick transitions, or wide crosses into the box to make use of their aerial dominance – Norway are the joint-tallest squad alongside Bosnia and Herzegovina.
At the heart of it all is Haaland, whose 16 goals in qualifying matched the record for a European qualifying campaign. Behind him, Ødegaard’s vision and creativity provide the ammunition, with the Arsenal captain finishing as Europe’s leading assist-maker during qualification. But the side is far from a two-man show. The Atlético Madrid forward Alexander Sørloth, standing tall at 6ft 5in, provides a perfect strike partner for Haaland. And the pace and invention of Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb and Andreas Schjelderup ensure Norway are not reliant on a single source of inspiration.
There are some reasons for caution. They lack experience – their last appearance at a major tournament was in Euro 2000 – and they are in one of the toughest groups in the competition, featuring reigning champions France and Afcon finalists Senegal. Norway’s attack has rightfully stolen the headlines so far but their defence – featuring Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjørn Heggem, Julian Ryerson and David Møller Wolfe – will need to stand up against elite opposition. If Norway can answer those questions, they have the quality to go far in this World Cup.
This is an article by WhoScored
