AFL Captains' Survey: Brisbane Lions Favored, Hawthorn Picks Raise Eyebrows

The annual AFL captains' survey has once again crowned the Brisbane Lions as the team to beat for the 2026 season, but a series of rogue predictions, particularly favoring Hawthorn players, have left the football community scratching their heads. While the Lions emerged as the overwhelming favorite to reach the grand final, with Nick Daicos tipped for the Brownlow Medal and Jagga Smith for the Rising Star award, several unexpected votes have ignited controversy and speculation.

Unexpected Hawthorn Selections Spark Debate

Hidden among the more predictable outcomes were some truly odd responses. Dylan Moore, who polled just five Brownlow votes last year and has only 17 in his 126-game career, received a vote for the Brownlow Medal. Similarly, Nick Watson, who kicked 32 goals in the 2025 home and away season, was nominated for the Coleman Medal, despite needing a massive jump to 65 goals to contend. Perhaps the most puzzling pick was Cameron Nairn, an 18-year-old taken with pick 20 in last year's draft who didn't feature in pre-season, receiving a vote for the Rising Star award.

All three of these unlikely predictions share one common theme: they are all Hawthorn players. Watson also got a vote for goal of the year, and Mabior Chol for mark of the year, though those at least seem more plausible. This has led to questions about whether Hawthorn captains Jai Newcombe or James Sicily might have simply backed their teammates in the survey, injecting a dose of club loyalty into the results.

Survey Results Highlight Favorites and Surprises

The captains' votes revealed clear frontrunners in several categories. Brisbane Lions led with 11 votes as the club most likely to reach the grand final, followed by Geelong and Sydney with two each. Nick Daicos was the top pick for the Brownlow with eight votes, while Marcus Bontempelli trailed with five. Jagga Smith dominated the Rising Star predictions with 10 votes.

However, the survey wasn't without its quirks. In addition to the Hawthorn anomalies, the question about which match captains are most looking forward to yielded an interesting response. While the QClash, Showdown, and Sydney v Carlton were popular, a clash between cellar dwellers North Melbourne and West Coast also received a nomination, suggesting some intrigue in lower-table battles.

Full Breakdown of Captains' Votes

Which club aside from your own is most likely to reach the AFL grand final?

11 – Brisbane Lions
2 – Geelong, Sydney
1 – Adelaide, Gold Coast, Hawthorn

Who will win the Brownlow Medal?

8 – Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
5 – Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
1 – Zak Butters (Port Adelaide), Errol Gulden (Sydney), Isaac Heeney (Sydney), Dylan Moore (Hawthorn), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)

Who will win the Coleman Medal?

4 – Charlie Curnow (Sydney)
3 – Ben King (Gold Coast)
2 – Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats), Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs), Ben King (Gold Coast), Harry McKay (Carlton)
1 – Mitch Georgiades (Port Adelaide), Jesse Hogan (GWS), Josh Treacy (Fremantle), Jake Waterman (West Coast), Nick Watson (Hawthorn)

Who will win the AFL Rising Star?

10 – Jagga Smith (Carlton)
2 – Sam Lalor* (Richmond)
1 – Cooper Duff-Tytler (West Coast), Lachy Dovaston (North Melbourne), Willem Duursma (West Coast), Jacob Farrow (Essendon), Taj Hotton (Richmond), Cameron Nairn (Hawthorn)

*Note: Sam Lalor has played 11 AFL games and is not eligible for the Rising Star award, as players must be under 21 and have played no more than 10 games prior to the season.

Who is most likely to take the Mark of the Year?

3 – Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne), Liam Ryan (St Kilda)
1 – Charlie Cameron (Brisbane), Nate Caddy (Essendon), Mabior Chol (Hawthorn), Joe Fonti (GWS), Mitch Georgiades (Port Adelaide), Isaac Heeney (Sydney), Jeremy Howe (Collingwood), Ben King (Gold Coast), Finnbar Maley (Adelaide), Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs), Harley Reid (West Coast), Alix Tauru (St Kilda)

Who is most likely to kick the Goal of the Year?

5 – Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne), Izak Rankine (Adelaide)
2 – Charlie Cameron (Brisbane)
1 – Shai Bolton (Fremantle), Paul Curtis (North Melbourne), Nick Daicos (Collingwood), Toby Greene (GWS), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda), Nick Watson (Hawthorn)

Which clubs are you most looking forward to watching match up this year?

6 – Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast
3 – Carlton vs Sydney Swans
2 – Adelaide vs Port Adelaide
1 – Brisbane vs Geelong, Carlton vs Collingwood, Collingwood vs West Coast, Essendon vs Hawthorn, GWS vs Sydney, GWS vs Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne vs West Coast

This survey not only sets the stage for the 2026 AFL season but also adds a layer of intrigue with its unexpected picks, particularly those centered around Hawthorn, ensuring fans will be watching closely to see if any of these bold predictions come to fruition.