Australian racing history stands firmly against Western Empire as the champion thoroughbred prepares for his shot at a record-breaking second Railway Stakes victory this Saturday. The star galloper faces the monumental challenge of joining an elite group of multiple winners in the event's near 150-year history.
The Weight of History
Only two horses have ever managed to win the prestigious Railway Stakes more than once since the race began in the 19th century. Tudor Mak achieved the feat in 1966 and 1967, while Luckygray matched this accomplishment in 2011 and 2013. What makes Western Empire's attempt particularly remarkable is the four-year gap since his 2021 triumph, creating a longevity challenge no horse has overcome in this specific race.
The historical parallels extend beyond the Railway Stakes itself. Should Western Empire succeed, he would become the first horse since the legendary Manikato to win the same Australian Group 1 race four years apart. Manikato famously dominated the Futurity Stakes between 1979 and 1983.
The Statistics Stack Against Him
Recent history reveals just how difficult recapturing the Railway crown has proven. Seventeen previous winners since 1990 have returned for another attempt, with only three managing to place in their subsequent runs. Aside from Luckygray's second victory, Jacks Or Better finished second in 1998 after winning in 1995, and Good Project followed his 2015 success with a runner-up performance the following year.
Adding to the challenge is the significant weight impost Western Empire must carry. He'll shoulder 58kg, matching the burden Luckygray carried to his second victory. This makes Luckygray the only horse to win with more than 56.5kg since metrics were introduced in 1972, and remarkably, the only winner with more than 53.5kg in the past 15 years.
The Williams Factor
Western Empire does possess one significant advantage that sets him apart from most competitors - the training expertise of Grant and Alana Williams. The powerhouse training partnership has claimed an impressive five Railway Stakes victories, including four consecutive wins that culminated with Western Empire's 2021 success.
"He's fantastic," Alana Williams told SEN's Giddy Up program. "Health wise, never had him better. He's very sound, very fit and he's in a really good headspace, which, with him, that's a really big thing."
Williams expressed confidence in the horse's preferred distance range and current condition. "I think that's his best distance. 1400m, 1600m, maybe up to 1800m, he's very solid. He's not a hard horse to train."
The barrier draw presents an interesting dynamic for the topweight. "Initially, I was thinking I would've preferred drawing wider than gate No. 1, but he has got 58kg, and that might help offset the weight," Williams explained.
Adding intrigue to the race is the Williams stable also entering Watch Me Rock, the current favourite at $3.40. The trainers' usual jockey William Pike has chosen to ride Watch Me Rock, leaving Billy Egan to take the mount on Western Empire.
When asked to separate her two contenders, Williams remained diplomatic. "Western Empire is probably pound for pound the best miler in WA. In saying that, we've never really got to the bottom of Watch Me Rock; we've always popped him the question and he's always elevated."
As the $6 second favourite, Western Empire stands on the precipice of racing history. The question remains whether he can overcome statistical trends, significant weight, and the passage of time to etch his name alongside the true greats of Australian racing.
