Six months after Australia's under-16s social media ban took effect, a new study published in the British Medical Journal finds that more than 85% of adolescents aged 12–16 are still using restricted platforms like TikTok, X, Facebook and Instagram. Led by University of Newcastle public health researcher Courtney Barnes, the study followed 408 teenagers just before the ban in December 2025 and again three months later. It compared those just under the age cutoff with those just over to isolate the law's effect.
High Evasion Rates Despite Age Verification
The study found that most under-16s accessed platforms through their own accounts. Two-thirds had encountered age verification, but the most common form was simply being asked to state their age. A minority used fake accounts or private browsing, while VPN use to evade the ban was rare. When comparing under-16s with just-over-16s, who were free to keep accounts, researchers found no meaningful gap in social media use at the age cutoff. The researchers acknowledged limitations: the analysis was underpowered and sample sizes either side of the cutoff were small. However, the results align with eSafety Commissioner research showing roughly 7 in 10 children kept their accounts after the ban.
Ban Not a Failure, Say Researchers
Despite the high evasion rates, the study's authors argue that judging the ban a failure is premature. "It was an unrealistic pipe dream that the ban would stop all of today's under-16s from using social media overnight," they noted. Instead, the ban enables the government to pressure social media companies to comply with directives. The law's logic is more aligned with public health approaches like Britain's Tobacco and Vapes Act, which bars anyone born on or after January 1 2009 from ever being sold tobacco. The aim is not to make today's smokers quit but to raise a generation for whom smoking never becomes normal. Similarly, Australia's social media ban bets that if access is delayed long enough, social media might lose its grip on childhood.
Long-Term Success Requires Sustained Pressure
Shifting a generation's social media norms requires relentless pressure on platforms for years, not abandonment after early headlines call it a failure. "My research into social media use and risk-taking found the same difficulties: norms are sticky," the author wrote. "Social media rewards risky content and changes what is deemed as normal or acceptable." Changing norms overnight is unlikely, but viewed generationally, social media use for children may become a benighted idea for future generations.
Unintended Consequences and Long Timeline
Laws that ban things often have unintended consequences. The new study reflects this, with small numbers of young people turning to fake accounts, private browsing or messaging apps. Some may drift to less visible corners of the internet. However, researchers argue that the greatest opportunity may lie with children under eight who have not yet started using social media, rather than teenagers with established habits. By their estimate, the full effects may not be clear for a decade. Australia has volunteered to be the world's test case, with other countries now following. To do the social media age restrictions justice, we should test the right thing.
