For decades after the discovery of Ebolavirus in 1976, outbreaks were relatively small and contained, affecting a few hundred people at most. Not any more. In recent years, outbreaks have been much larger, affecting thousands and even tens of thousands across multiple countries. The 2014 West Africa outbreak infected over 28,000 people in 10 countries on three continents. The current eruption, which began in early May and shows no signs of abating, has caused 363 confirmed cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and has crossed into Uganda.
The conventional explanation focuses on larger and more interconnected human populations. But there is a more fundamental driver: the transformation of the underlying ecology of Ebola, being remade in part by the rising global hunger for minerals to power the hi-tech economy.
Bats and Deforestation
Most of the time, viruses such as Ebola live quietly in the bodies of their animal hosts, widely understood to be bats, causing little harm. Virus-laden bats that live in places like the DRC, whose borders encompass 60% of the world's second largest rainforest, usually reach only a few people in remote locations, resulting in small outbreaks that quickly burn out. With repeated exposures, people living near Ebola-carrying bats acquire a degree of immunity; one survey suggests nearly 20% of forest-dwelling people in Gabon have developed immune protections against Ebolavirus.
But cutting down the trees in which bats live ruptures this delicate balance. The bats do not simply vanish when their trees are gone. They squeeze into the fragments of forest that remain, in closer proximity to humans, increasing the likelihood of encounters where humans are exposed to their viral-laden blood, saliva, and excreta. That is why, with each percentage increase in deforestation in Central Africa, as a 2025 analysis found, the incidence of malaria and Ebola spikes by 20% to 40%. The 2014 Ebola epidemic was preceded by the loss of 85% of forest cover in the south-west corner of Guinea, where the outbreak began. The current outbreak of Bundibugyo Ebola fits the pattern, preceded by a record loss of 1.5 million acres of Congo basin rainforest in 2024, according to satellite data analyzed by Global Forest Watch.
Mining as a Driver
Humanity's pressure on forests is nothing new. But in the DRC, there is a new driver of deforestation tied to the modern global economy: artisanal mining. Local people dig for minerals such as gold, coltan, and cobalt to sell into the global supply chain via an informal network of smugglers and intermediaries. Artisanal mining employs an estimated 2 million people in the DRC, including over 380,000 in eastern DRC. Although the DRC is the world's top producer of cobalt and Africa's largest producer of copper, most of its mineral wealth, valued at $24 trillion, remains untapped by commercial mining due to political instability and armed conflict.
Skyrocketing global demand for the so-called "3TG" minerals (tungsten, tin, tantalum, and gold) required for tech products like semiconductors and smartphones is expected to triple in coming years. In a race to counter China's dominance, Donald Trump suspended rules against "conflict minerals" in 2018 and last year signed an agreement with the DRC for access to its mineral abundance in exchange for security.
Impact on Ebola Ecology
The hunt for minerals alters Ebola ecology in peculiar ways that boost the pathogen's ability to spread. When people expand farms, they push into forests from the edges. Those seeking minerals plunge deep into the forest core. Rising mineral prices attract people from all over, including those without acquired immunity. Far from settled areas and agricultural markets, they are more likely to sustain themselves by hunting, bringing human bodies and animal bodies into intimate contact. If their prey includes animals harboring Ebolaviruses, any pathogens picked up can easily spread in makeshift mining towns with poor sanitation and little health infrastructure.
Whether artisanal mining played a role in sparking the current epidemic is unknown. But the first cluster of fatal cases emerged in Mongbwalu in north-eastern DRC, a swelling mining town littered with unregulated gold mining areas. Satellite data shows that last year, as the price of gold doubled in response to the president's tariffs, the forests around Mongbwalu were sliced open, pushing a new frontier deeper into the jungle. Scientist Matthew Hansen, who tracks global forest cover using satellite data, zoomed into Mongbwalu on his map. Wobbly lines of bright blue, indicating areas newly deforested in 2025, radiated out to the west and south. "Wow," he said. "There is a ton of mining around here. Holy shit."
Preventing Future Outbreaks
In the midst of deadly outbreaks, experts and policymakers focus on response and preparedness. But for novel pathogens like Bundibugyo, which can elude standard diagnostic tests and vaccines, no level of preparedness can squash them before exponential spread. The third, relatively ignored pillar of pandemic policymaking is preventing the broken ecologies that drive novel pathogens into human populations. This means more attention to ecosystem health, such as the forests of the Congo basin, and how its minerals might be inside the smartphone in your pocket.
Sonia Shah is the author of five books including Pandemic: Tracking Contagions, from Cholera to Ebola and Beyond, and writes the newsletter Cross Pollinations on Substack.
