Hunter Coal Mining Faces Activist Pressure Amid Record Global Demand
Later this month, environmental group Rising Tide will attempt to blockade the Port of Newcastle in a repeat of previous protests that typically result in mass arrests. The activists consistently portray Hunter Valley coal as a significant threat to the global environment, but this perspective overlooks crucial economic realities and international energy trends.
The Economic Reality of Hunter Valley Coal
Mining represents a substantial component of the Hunter economy, contributing approximately 25 per cent of regional economic activity. Despite the dramatic rhetoric from protest groups, NSW coal exports account for only about 2 per cent of total global coal production. This modest share means that if NSW ceased coal mining today, international customers would simply source lower-quality coal from alternative suppliers, potentially generating even higher emissions.
Such a move would represent a futile climate gesture while simultaneously devastating the Hunter economy. The region would suffer catastrophic economic consequences without making any meaningful impact on global emissions.
Global Coal Demand Defies Predictions of Decline
Contrary to claims that coal is an industry in rapid decline, international data reveals a different story. The International Energy Agency has consistently underestimated global coal demand in recent years. In 2020, the IEA predicted global coal demand would reach approximately 7.4 billion tonnes by 2025. Just one year later, they revised this estimate upward, forecasting demand would rise to an all-time high of just over 8 billion tonnes in 2024.
The reality proved even more surprising. Last year, global coal consumption reached a record 8.8 billion tonnes – 16 per cent higher than the IEA's 2020 forecast. This resilience in global demand stems from growing energy needs worldwide and slower-than-expected deployment of alternative energy sources across most countries.
Coal Power Expansion Continues Across Asia
The number of operational coal-fired power plants worldwide has remained remarkably stable. In 2021, there were 2,439 coal plants operating globally. By 2025, this number has declined by just 11 to 2,428 facilities.
Significant expansion continues across Asia:
- China has added 177 coal-fired power plants since 2012, bringing their total to 1,195 – nearly half the world's coal generation capacity – with another 177 under construction
- India now operates 290 coal plants, 19 more than in 2021, with 21 additional facilities being built
- Bangladesh operates seven coal plants with two more under construction
- Pakistan has increased from nine to 17 operational coal plants since 2021, with another under construction
- The Philippines now has 27 coal plants with two more being built
- Cambodia has doubled its coal power plants from two to four, with another under construction
Japan, Korea and Taiwan maintain exactly 129 operating coal-fired power plants, the same number as in 2021.
Managing the Hunter's Energy Transition
While planning for future changes remains important, the pace of transition should be determined by actual shifts in coal demand rather than activist attempts to restrict supply. Maintaining operational coal mines and preserving mining jobs for as long as possible ensures the Hunter region can manage any future changes smoothly.
The scheduled closure of Mt Arthur coal mine in 2030 and the anticipated subsequent closure of Mangoola mine as reserves diminish highlight the importance of approving operational extensions for other regional mines. These extensions provide crucial job opportunities and economic security as older facilities close.
Climate concerns shouldn't prevent these approvals. The NSW coal industry has already reduced emissions by 28 per cent since 2005, outperforming the state average reduction of 25 per cent. Nearly all NSW coal mines operate under the federal government's strict emissions reduction legislation and remain on track to meet the NSW government's 2030 emissions target.
Given these circumstances, those genuinely concerned about the Hunter's future should support continued coal mining operations and exports for as long as global market conditions allow.
