Andy Burnham has emerged as Labour's best hope to counter the rise of Reform UK, following Keir Starmer's resignation after a devastating local election defeat. With Reform now leading national polls by up to 10 points, Burnham's popularity—scoring plus nine in approval ratings compared to Starmer's minus 45—positions him as the only major politician capable of reversing the tide.
Starmer's Fall and the Reform Threat
Starmer's departure came after Reform swept through local councils, from Barnsley to East Sussex. In Sunderland, Reform now holds 58 councillors to Labour's five, while South Tyneside saw Labour reduced to a single councillor. The impact is tangible: South Tyneside's new Reform council is consulting on closing 10 publicly run nurseries, suggesting the private sector provide alternatives. Joanna Taylor, a mother campaigning to save Stanley nurseries, warns that private nurseries have waiting lists until 2028, while council staff are better trained for children with special educational needs.
Burnham's Appeal and Policies
Burnham's victory in Makerfield, a Brexit stronghold that voted heavily Reform in local elections just a month earlier, demonstrates his ability to win back defectors. His platform includes electoral reform, devolution of power and money to mayors, rent controls, lower energy bills through green levies paid by general taxes, capping bus fares at £2, cutting business rates for pubs and small shops, and nationalising water and the National Grid. He also advocates a closer embrace of the EU and a principled stance against Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Economic Strategy and Cabinet Choices
Burnham's economic policy, shaped by advisers like Jim O'Neill, includes war bonds with reduced inheritance tax to attract defence investment, equalising income and capital gains tax rates, and increased borrowing for productive capital investment. The choice of chancellor is critical: Ed Miliband, endorsed by Unison, would signal a bold economic direction, with Shabana Mahmood at the Home Office and James Purnell as chief of staff.
Challenges and Outlook
Burnham faces relentless attacks from a hostile media, but his blend of optimism and realism offers a path to defeat Reform. As Polly Toynbee writes, "He'll prove them wrong if he steers his own course with that difficult blend of optimism and realism, of hope, risk and wisdom." The task is immense, but Burnham's unique appeal may be Labour's last chance to keep Farage from Downing Street.
