The Midwest is experiencing a population resurgence after decades of decline, becoming the only US region where every state gained residents from July 2024 to July 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. A Bank of America Institute report from last month found that Midwestern metros made up the majority of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas over the last two quarters. People are moving primarily for lower costs of living and a more temperate climate compared to other parts of the country.
Lower costs drive migration to Republican-leaning counties
Washington state native Taryn Sigman moved to Greene County, Ohio, to buy a farm. “Inexpensive land, animal feed and vet care was half of what it was in Washington, plus the everyday costs like gas and groceries made this area an obvious choice,” she said. She purchased a well-maintained 11-acre farm with barns for under $350,000 in Ohio. “I could have never dreamed of owning that type of property back home.” Nearly two million people have left California in recent years, with more than 8,000 moving to Ohio in 2024 despite the distance. Many of the fastest-growing counties in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas and Ohio are smaller, predominantly Republican counties. In Ohio, the three counties with the biggest population gains from 2020 to 2024—Greene, Jefferson, and Washington—all voted heavily for Donald Trump in the 2024 election. More than 1,270 people moved to Greene County in 2024 from other US states, reversing losses of thousands of residents during the 2010s.
Influx of left-leaning migrants could shift politics
An influx of migrants from Democratic-leaning states could gradually alter the political landscape. Sigman, a Gen X liberal, said, “My politics are basically human rights, women should have a right to choose, love who you want to love, and spending an extra dollar to make sure my neighbor is fed doesn’t bother me.” More people moved to Michigan in 2024 from California (14,000) than from neighboring Ohio. Over 13,000 people moved to Ohio from New York and New Jersey in the same year. Kim McCarthy, chair of the Greene County Democratic party and a candidate for Ohio’s House of Representatives, noted, “Anecdotally, we’ve made jokes about how we love our California people; [here’s] another one from California. Some of our main people came from California.” She added, “We are actively creating a party people want to come to… we had a 112% turnout in the May primary – we added nearly 2,000 Democrats to the rolls in Greene County.” She highlighted Wright-Patterson Air Force Base as a source of progressive newcomers: “That precinct had a 230% turnout [in the May Democratic primary]. It just went crazy.”
Experts caution against overstating immediate political change
Not everyone believes political change is imminent. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said, “I think you would really need to see a ton of migration to really change a place politically… 20,000 people moving to Ohio from blue states, that’s really just a drop in the bucket in a state that will cast something like 4-4.5 million votes in a midterm.” He acknowledged some areas outside major metros are “getting bluer or less red in part because of migration, like touristy areas such as the Traverse City area in Michigan and Door County, Wisconsin.” However, he noted that Kamala Harris running ahead of Joe Biden in those places “wasn’t nearly enough to make up for erosion elsewhere from 2020 to 2024.” Polls show the Democratic party struggles to gain traction in rural and urban districts despite Trump administration missteps.
Long-term trends could accelerate political shifts
The trend of left-leaning voters moving into the Midwest could accelerate due to rising costs and climate migration. Trump’s approval rating in rural US has fallen 10% to 50% since the start of his second term. Despite Trump winning all seven battleground states in 2024, Harris won a larger percentage of votes than Biden in 2020 in many fast-growing rural Midwestern counties, including Delaware County outside Columbus. McCarthy said, “For me, the change happens when the younger people start speaking up… The amount of financial pressure is finally making people understand that the policies that occur impact their lives.” In Greene County, a recent sale of a 185-acre farm near Yellow Springs to a lawyer couple from San Francisco highlights the trend. According to the US Census Bureau, 8% of Yellow Springs residents in 2024 moved from another state, four times the national rate. Sigman, who lives near Yellow Springs, noted that climate change has made farming in Ohio more affordable than out west. “I love Ohio. Besides the politics… The people are friendly, there are so many things to do, and although I miss the mountains and the sea, Ohio has a feeling of home that I don’t remember feeling in Washington.”
