A proposed trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom could result in 229,000 excess deaths in England over the next 15 years, according to a new analysis by researchers at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). The study warns that increased drug prices from the deal would reduce access to essential medicines, particularly for chronic conditions.
Key Findings of the Analysis
The analysis, published in the journal BMJ Global Health, models the impact of a US-UK trade agreement that would align UK drug pricing more closely with US levels. Under the scenario, the NHS would pay 25% more for pharmaceuticals, leading to higher costs for patients and the health system. The researchers estimate that this price increase would result in 229,000 additional deaths from conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer over 15 years.
Lead author Dr. Martin McKee said: “This deal could have devastating consequences for public health in England. The NHS would be forced to ration medicines, and patients would face higher out-of-pocket costs, leading to worse health outcomes.”
Impact on Access to Medicines
The study assumes that higher prices would lead to reduced prescribing and lower adherence to medications. For example, a 25% price increase for statins could result in 45,000 additional heart disease deaths. Similarly, higher costs for insulin could lead to 12,000 excess deaths among diabetes patients. The analysis also highlights that the poorest communities would be disproportionately affected.
The UK government has not commented on the findings, but trade negotiations with the US have been ongoing since 2020. Proponents of the deal argue it would boost trade and lower prices for some goods, but critics say it would undermine the NHS’s ability to negotiate lower drug prices.
Broader Implications
The LSE analysis adds to growing concerns about the impact of trade deals on public health. Similar agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, have been criticized for raising drug costs. The researchers call for a full health impact assessment before any deal is finalized.
According to the study, the 229,000 excess deaths represent a 5% increase in mortality from chronic diseases over the period. The NHS currently spends about £18 billion annually on medicines, and a 25% increase would add £4.5 billion to the bill.
