The Canberra Raiders have received an unexpected boost to their 2026 season prospects, with the Matildas' international football commitments creating a favourable scheduling scenario for the Green Machine.
Football Creates NRL Opportunities
Australia's hosting of the Women's Asia Cup from March 2-21, 2026, has forced several NRL teams to begin their campaigns on the road, significantly improving the Raiders' chances of securing a coveted round-one home game at Canberra Stadium. The tournament will occupy venues at Gold Coast, Parramatta and Sydney Olympic Park, displacing multiple clubs from their usual home grounds.
The disruption means South Sydney, Parramatta, Penrith, Canterbury and the Gold Coast will all need to start their seasons away from home, creating additional opportunities for the Raiders to host an early season match in the nation's capital.
Improved Odds for Canberra
With the NRL season kicking off with two games in Las Vegas on February 28 featuring Bulldogs versus St George Illawarra and Newcastle against North Queensland, the remainder of round one will commence during the first weekend of March. The scheduling alignment gives the Raiders a 57 per cent chance of starting at Canberra Stadium, a substantial improvement over their historical average.
Assuming Melbourne Storm begins the Australian leg of round one at home on Thursday, March 5, followed by Brisbane Broncos launching their premiership defence at Lang Park the next night, the Raiders face promising mathematics. The Green Machine now has a four-in-seven chance of playing at home in round one, compared to just a 29 per cent chance of starting away and one-in-seven probability of having the bye.
This represents a significant upgrade from the typical 46 per cent chance (six in thirteen) when considering the four teams involved in the Las Vegas matches.
Historical Context Shows Dramatic Improvement
The improved odds come as welcome news for Raiders fans accustomed to frequent road trips to start seasons. Throughout the NRL era, Canberra has begun round one at home only eight times, compared to nineteen away games and one bye.
This translates to less than 29 per cent of seasons starting at Canberra Stadium, or approximately once every four years. The situation was particularly bleak from 2001-2010 when the Raiders never opened a season at home, though this period did include a bye in 2005.
Recent years have shown slight improvement, with three of the past six seasons commencing in the ACT. Not counting this year's Las Vegas game, which technically counted as a Raiders home game, the last true home opener was against Cronulla Sharks in 2022.
That 2022 match ended an unprecedented run of three consecutive years opening at Canberra Stadium, demonstrating how rare such sequences are for the club.
In terms of potential opponents, historical patterns may further favour the Raiders. The Green Machine has most frequently started seasons against North Queensland Cowboys (four times), though this isn't possible in 2026 with the Cowboys scheduled for Las Vegas. They've also begun three times each against Penrith, Gold Coast Titans and Cronulla - with two of those teams among those displaced by the Asia Cup.
The full NRL draw is expected to be released late next week, giving Raiders fans clearer insight into whether the mathematical probabilities translate into reality for the 2026 season opener.
