NRL's Controversial Kick-Off Rule: Will It Work or Worsen Blowouts?
The NRL has introduced a controversial new kick-off rule, marking the biggest change to rugby league since the six-again rule in 2020. Under this new system, the team that has just scored will now kick off, a move designed to curb the momentum of scoring teams and reduce blowouts in games. However, a deep dive into the statistics suggests this change might not only be unnecessary but could potentially exacerbate the very issue it aims to solve.
Historical Data Paints a Troubling Picture
The only previous instance of this kick-off rule being used was during the one-and-only Super League season in 1997. An analysis of that season compared to the non-breakaway ARL season of the same year reveals some concerning trends. Super League had a significantly lower percentage of close games, defined as those decided by six points or less, at just 22.9 per cent compared to 31.9 per cent in the ARL. Moreover, blowouts, defined as margins of 20 points or more, were more frequent in Super League at 29.2 per cent versus 24.1 per cent, with the average margin also higher at 14.1 points compared to 12.9.
While some might argue this disparity was due to a larger gap between the best and worst teams in Super League, the data nonetheless indicates that the kick-off rule could lead to fewer thrilling finishes and more lopsided results. This historical precedent raises serious questions about the NRL's current decision.
The Six-Again Rule's Impact on Game Margins
Further complicating the picture is the influence of the six-again rule, which the NRL is also modifying this season. The league is expanding the areas where a six-again will be awarded instead of a penalty, reducing the exclusion zone from the attacking 40-metre line to the attacking 20-metre line. Statistics show that the introduction and subsequent expansions of the six-again rule have had a notable effect on game margins.
In 2019, before the rule was implemented, the average margin was 13.7 points. This increased to 15.1 points in 2020 when six-agains were introduced for ruck infringements, and then jumped dramatically to 18 points in 2021 when offsides were included. The trend of blowouts actually decreased when the 40-metre exclusion zone was introduced, suggesting that limiting the six-again rule might be more effective in promoting competitive balance than the new kick-off change.
Recent Trends and the Path Forward
Looking at more recent data, blowouts saw a slight increase in 2025 compared to 2024, with 70 out of 213 games (32.9 per cent) decided by 20 points or more, up by four games from the previous year. This ended a three-year trend of declining blowouts. Interestingly, the percentage of close games has been on the rise, with 2025 marking the first time since 2020 that there were more close games (73) than blowouts in a season.
This raises the question: if blowouts were already trending downward and close games were increasing, is the kick-off rule change truly necessary? Some analysts argue that scrapping or further refining the six-again rule might be a more targeted approach to reducing lopsided scores, given its documented impact on margins. However, governing bodies are often reluctant to reverse course on rule changes, as it can be seen as an admission of error.
As the NRL season approaches, fans and pundits alike will be watching closely to see if this bold rule change achieves its intended goals or if the statistical warnings prove accurate. The data suggests a cautious outlook, highlighting the complex interplay between rule modifications and game outcomes in professional rugby league.
