Canberra's January Heatwave: A Scorching Start to 2026 Explained
It was not merely a perception; the opening month of 2026 delivered one of the most severe heatwaves in recent memory for Canberra residents. An in-depth analysis by The Canberra Times has confirmed that January 2026 ranked as the fifth hottest January since 2008, underscoring a trend of intensifying summer conditions.
The Relentless Heat Trifecta
The month was characterised by a punishing "heat trifecta" that saw temperatures soar to extraordinary levels. On January 28, the mercury peaked at a blistering 42.6 degrees Celsius, followed by 40.2 degrees on January 30, and 41.8 degrees on January 31. This marked a significant milestone: for the first time since the catastrophic Black Summer of 2020, Canberra breached the 40-degree barrier not just once, but three times within a single week.
The final four days of January alone delivered as many "extreme heat" days as the entire calendar year of 2020 recorded for the capital. This concentrated burst of high temperatures contributed to an overall pattern where about two out of every three days saw readings above 30 degrees, with more than half of those days exceeding 35 degrees.
Rainfall Collapse Exacerbates Conditions
Compounding the searing heat was a dramatic near-collapse in rainfall. While recent La Niña years from 2021 to 2025 brought January totals as high as 102 millimetres, this year the city recorded a meagre 14 millimetres. This represents a staggering 75 per cent plunge below the historical average for January.
Most of this limited precipitation came from just two days, which recorded 5.8 millimetres and 5.4 millimetres respectively. The absence of typical summer rains intensified the blistering heat, creating parched conditions across the territory.
Fire Risks and Official Warnings
The combination of extreme heat and severe moisture deficit prompted authorities to take decisive action. ACT Rural Fire Service Chief Officer Rohan Scott noted that while the territory had been fortunate during recent wet seasons, that "reprieve" had clearly ended. The dangerous conditions forced the declaration of total fire bans on January 10 and January 25—the first such bans implemented in six years.
According to forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology, little relief appears imminent. Temperatures are expected to remain elevated, with a maximum of 35 degrees predicted for the first week of February. A BoM spokesperson indicated that February is likely to record temperatures above average both during the day and at night, though rainfall is expected to align with the February average of 64 millimetres.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
Historical BoM data reveals that from 2009 to 2025, the average maximum temperature in February was nearly two degrees lower than in January. During this period, January typically averaged about 15 days at or above 30 degrees, while February recorded significantly fewer with just eight such days. February has also historically been the wetter month, averaging 64.1 millimetres of rain compared to January's 56.8 millimetres.
The analysis, conducted using maximum daily temperature and rainfall figures recorded at the Canberra Airport station, paints a concerning picture of shifting climate patterns. As temperatures continue to challenge historical norms, Canberra residents face adapting to increasingly extreme summer conditions that test both infrastructure and resilience.
