Pollsters are sounding the alarm that Australia's major political parties are 'evaporating' as the upcoming Farrer by-election promises to be a battleground between Pauline Hanson's One Nation and a Climate 200-backed independent candidate.
The by-election, triggered by the resignation of former Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, is shaping up as a gift to populist movements, reflecting a broader shift in the nation's political landscape.
The New Political Paradigm
Simon Welsh, Director of Research at polling and strategy firm Redbridge, told the 7NEWS podcast The Issue that Australia is entering uncharted territory.
'We are no longer in an Australia of Labor versus Liberal, Holden versus Ford. These sorts of allegiances and stories are evaporating,' Welsh said.
He emphasised that political institutions are not permanent, noting that Australia's post-World War II two-party stability is now eroding, catching up with global trends.
Key Issues: Health and Water
Voters in the Farrer electorate, which includes Albury and Griffith in south-west New South Wales, are focused on local concerns. Albury residents are demanding a new hospital, while farmers oppose federal government water buybacks in the Murray-Darling basin.
Welsh highlighted a deep sense of neglect among regional communities, which he believes will drive the by-election outcome.
'There is this profound sense of neglect, this profound sense of service erosion and this idea that the major parties don't care about regional communities,' he said. 'The pain and hardship in regional communities is profound, and we will see it shake up this election.'
Polling and Preferences
Limited published polls indicate a tight race between One Nation's David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe. A uComms poll from April 9-10 showed Farley leading with 30.9 per cent of the primary vote, narrowly ahead of Milthorpe's 30.0 per cent. The Liberals' Raissa Butkowski polled at 16.1 per cent, and the Nationals' Brad Robertson at 7.1 per cent.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's decision to preference One Nation ahead of the independent has tipped the odds in One Nation's favour, according to political experts.
Welsh called this a strategic mistake, arguing that it legitimises One Nation ahead of the 2028 federal election. 'The validation they are giving to One Nation hurts the Liberals in the long run. The more credible One Nation looks, the more it gives disaffected Liberal voters somewhere to go,' he said.
What the Result Will Mean
The by-election result, expected late on Saturday, May 9, will send a message not only to Taylor and the Liberals but also to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, as voters increasingly demand change on issues like tax, housing, and the cost of living.
For more analysis, listen to The Issue on Listnr or watch full episodes on the 7NEWS YouTube channel.
