The stage is set for one of the most unpredictable Melbourne Cups in recent memory as wild spring weather threatens to turn Flemington into a quagmire, completely reshaping the betting market for Australia's most famous race.
Al Riffa Emerges as Clear Favourite
Irish galloper Al Riffa has surged into outright favouritism following dramatic market moves that saw him firm from $8.50 to $7.50 with leading bookmakers. The Joseph O'Brien-trained star has captured punters' imagination as forecasts predict a rain-affected track that could play directly to his strengths.
"He's the one they all have to beat now," said TAB's Nick Quinn. "The money has been significant and sustained. Punters believe he's perfectly suited if the track deteriorates."
Weather Chaos Looms Over Flemington
The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast up to 25mm of rain for Melbourne on Monday and Tuesday, with the potential for even heavier falls. This meteorological uncertainty has thrown the $8.4 million race wide open, favouring horses with proven form on soft and heavy ground.
Racing Victoria's chief handicapper David Hegan confirmed the track would likely be rated in the soft range, possibly even heavy if the predicted deluge arrives. "We're preparing for all scenarios," Hegan stated. "The drainage at Flemington is excellent, but you can't fight nature if we get the extreme end of the forecast."
International Raiders Set to Capitalise
The weather shift has dramatically improved the prospects of several international contenders who cut their teeth on European soft ground:
- Al Riffa - Multiple Group 2 winner with outstanding wet track form
- Vauban - Willie Mullins' star remains at $9 despite the conditions
- Breakup - Japanese contender who thrives in the rain
Local Hopes Face Stern Test
Australian-trained horses face a monumental challenge against the international wet-track specialists. Without Winx in the field, the local contingent led by Gold Trip and Without A Fight may struggle if the track becomes genuinely heavy.
"This weather completely changes the complexion of the race," noted champion jockey James McDonald. "The Europeans are bred for these conditions. It could be a very long day for the locals if we get the rain they're predicting."
Caulfield Cup Form Under Microscope
All eyes will be on how the Caulfield Cup form holds up, with several runners from that race backing up in the Melbourne Cup. The contrasting track conditions between the two races could see dramatic form reversals, making this year's edition particularly challenging for form students.
As Flemington prepares for its greatest spectacle, one thing is certain: the weather gods will have the final say in who drinks from the 2024 Melbourne Cup.
